The IntelliNews Montenegrin Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Montenegro, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it's updated regularly from a comprehensive range of reliable statistical sources. It will save time and provide a thorough analysis.

Summary 

The EC revised down its forecast for Montenegro's economic growth in 2013 as tax increases are seen weighing on domestic demand. The Commission’s projection is also lower than the government's expectation for 2.5% growth this year. Still, recovery of bank lending or the opening of some large investments before end-2013 could support economic growth.

In January, the annual consumer and producer inflation slowed. Industrial output increased during the month on the back of improved utilities performance but the manufacturing sector continued to push the index down.

On the fiscal side, the IMF warned that Montenegro should urgently implement additional budget consolidation measures in order to tame public debt growth and achieve its budget deficit target in 2013.

Recent developments drew the attention to aluminium plant KAP at the end of February - CEAC, part of Russia's En+ Group of Oleg Deripaska, offered to transfer its 29.4% stake in KAP to the government, which also already holds 29.4%, and receive EUR 51mn in return.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
2. Inflation
    Montenegro's CPI inflation eases to 4.2% in Jan 2013.
    Montenegro's harmonised inflation eases to 3.8% y/y in Jan 2013.
    Montenegro's PPI inflation slows down to 4.6% y/y in Jan 2013.
3. Industry and Trade
    Montenegro's retail sales rise 9.5% in Jan 2013.
4. Labour Market
    Montenegro's average net wage drops 3% y/y in Jan 2013.
    Montenegro's unemployment rate up to 13.7% as of Jan 28.
5. Tourism

FISCAL SECTOR
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Montenegro's bank assets post zero growth as of end-2012.
Montenegro's bank deposits up 9% y/y at end-Dec 2012

EXTERNAL SECTOR

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS

POLITICAL NEWS
Main opponents in Montenegrin presidential vote launch election campaigns.

Table 1 Montenegro: GDP
Table 2 CPI, %, y/y
Table 3 Montenegro: Industrial output, %, y/y
Table 4 Montenegro: Total assets of commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 6 Montenegro: Deposits held at commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 7 External Trade Montenegro

Figure 1 Montenegro Producer Price Index
Figure 2 Montenegro Industrial Output
Figure 3 Montenegro Average Wage
Figure 4 Montenegro Bank Assets
Figure 6 Montenegro Bank Deposits